Saturday, May 23, 2009

Illicit flight of capital and the sensational estimates

Several reports, including a report in The Economic Economic Times said this:
India topped the world with $1.45 trillion deposits in Swiss banks. Other countries were Russia $470 billion, UK $390 billion, Ukraine $100 billion and China $96 billion.

This is in alleged black money in swiss bank deposits, representing the total of flight of capital over several years. These reports appeared sensational and I looked for some basis, found a rediff article "Swiss black money can take India to the top" which quotes from the following Ford Foundation supported research from Global Financial Integrity.

The GFI report estimates $ 27 billion as the flight of capital from India in one year. Vicky Nanjappa who wrote the rediff.com artilce makes the estimation that over a 60 year period the total accumulation in swiss bank (and other bank accounts) would be $ 1.4 trillion. If his rationale appears weak, Economic Times gives the list of deposits from India, Russia, Ukraine and China and says that India tops the world with $ 1.45 trillion in deposits.

Illicit Financial Flows From Developing Countries- 2002-2006

The trouble is that most reports quote a "Swiss Banking Association report 2006 by Naman Sood " and a search for this string in Google led to the link www.newstin.com which says the page can not be found. There is a PDF Annual Report of the. Swiss Bankers Association for the year. 1 April 2006 to 31 March 2007 from Swiss banking Org which does not contain any information related to the quantum of deposits from India, Ukraine or Russia.

What then is the basis of the estimates that $ 1.4 trillion in Indian money is there is swiss bank accounts as illicit wealth?

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